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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-12-20T00:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-12-20T00:48Z
CME Note: associated to the X1.8 flare with peak time 2014-12-20T00:24Z. Shock arrival time verification still pending. Another shock was observed on 2014-12-23T10:33Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-12-22T14:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-12-23T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/7428/1


Model Inputs:
2014-12-20T01:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=23.0, Lat.=-43.0, Speed=964.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2014-12-20T04:09Z 

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2014-12-23T06:00Z (confidence level +- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif 
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mess_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = 
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif 
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20141220_040900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 40.77 hour(s)
Difference: -15.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-12-20T21:42Z

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